Simulation Design of Economic Processes

1Kuz'min, OYe., 1Kozik, VV, 1Sidorov, Yu.I, 1Yerashok, VE
1Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv
Nauka innov. 2011, 7(1):16-25
https://doi.org/10.15407/scin7.01.016
Section: Scientific Basis of Innovation Activity
Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: 
History of origin, modern state and future of method of аbduction аgent-based computer simulation modeling is considered. The method is used for explanation of evolutional processes’ proceeding in economy and also for prognostication of the development of economic patterns. In spite of failings (in particular, not enough realistic agent behavior) which can be overcame by the improvement of both model’s content parts and software, the method is already used with commercial and expert aims by individual firms, industries and governments of different countries.
Keywords: prognostication, simulation design, simulation research
References: 
1. Kjuntcel' C. Jevoljucionnoe modelirovanie i kriticheskij realism. Voprosy ekonomiki. 2009. No 1: 101-118 [in Russian].
2. Makasheva N.A. Komp'juternye simuljacii i jekonomicheskaja nauka: metodologicheskij i jepistemologicheskij aspekty. 7-j Mezhdunarodnyj simpozium po jevoljucionnoj ekonomike, 14-15 sentjabrja 2007, Pushhino. Moskva: IJe RAN, 2008. economics.hse.ru/.../179/418/1241/simp_-klyukin.doc [in Russian].
3. Richard R. Nelson and Sidney G. Winter. An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. London: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1982; Nel'son R., Uinter S. Jevoljucionnaja teorija jekonomicheskih izmenenij: Per. s angl. Moskva: Delo, 2002.
4. Kwasnicki W. Schumpeterian modelling. Forthcoming in The Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, edited by Horst Hanusch and Andreas Pyka (The first version — March 28th, 2003). http://prawo.uni.wroc.pl/ kwasnicki/todownload/Schumpe-terian20modellin...
5. Silverberg G. Technical Progress, Capital Accumulation and Effective Demand: A Selforganisation Model, Universitat Stuttgard. Published in D. Batten (ed. (1987) Economic Evolution and Structural Change. BerlinHeidelberg-New York: Springer-Verlag, 1985.
6. Silverberg G., Dosi G., Orsenigo L. Innovation, Diversity and Diffusion: A Self-Organisation Model. Economic Journal. 1988. V. 98. P. 1032-1054.
https://doi.org/10.2307/2233718
7. Kwasnicka H., Kwasnicki W. Market, Innovation, Competition. An evolutionary model of industrial dynamics. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 1992. V. 19. P. 343-368.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(92)90042-A
8. Silverberg G., Lehnert D. Long Waves and 'Evolutionary Chaos' in a Simple Schumpeterian Model of Embodied Technical Change. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 1993. V. 4. P. 9-37.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0954-349X(93)90003-3
9. Silverberg G., Lehnert D. Evolutionary Chaos: Growth Fluctuations in a Schumpeterian Model of Creative Destruction. MERIT Report 93-003, 1993.
10. Silverberg G., Verspagen B. Learning. Innovation and Economic Growth: A Long-run Model of Industrial Dynamics. Industrial and Corporate Change. 1994. V. 3, No 1. P. 199-223.
https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/3.1.199
11. Silverberg G., Verspagen B. Economic Dynamics and Behavioral Adaptation: An Application to an Evolutionary Endogenous Growth Model. IIASA Working paper WP-94-84, 1994.
12. Silverberg G., Verspagen B. Collective learning, innovation and growth in a boundedly rational, evolutionary world. Journal of Evolutionary Economics. 1994. V. 4. P. 207-226.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01236369
13. Silverberg G., Verspagen B. From the Artificial to the Endogenous: Modelling Evolutionary Adaptation and Economic Growth. IIASA Working paper WP-95-08, 1995.
14. Silverberg G., Verspagen B. An Evolutionary Model of Long Term Cyclical variations of Catching Up and Falling Behind. IIASA Working paper WP-95-09, 1995.
15. Dosi G., Fabiani S., Freeman Ch., Aversi R. On the Process of Economic Development. Center for Research in Management, University of California at Berkeley, CCC Working Paper No. 93-2, 1993.
16. Dosi G., Marsili O., Orsenigo L., Salvatore R. Learning, Market Selection and the Evolution of Industrial Structures. Small Business Economics. 1995. V. 7. P. 411-436; first published in 1993 as working paper: Center for Research in Management, University of California at Berkeley, CCC Working Paper No. 93-9.
17. Dosi G., Fabiani S., Aversi R., Meacci M. The Dynamics of International Differentiation: A Multi-country Evolutionary Model. Industrial and Corporate Change. 1994. V. 2, No 3. P. 225-241.
https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/3.1.225
18. Windrum P., Birchenhall C. Is product life cycle theory a special case? Dominant design and the emergence of market niches through coevolutionary-learning. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 1998. V. 9. P. 109-134.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0954-349X(97)00039-8
20. Winter S.G. Kaniovski Y. M., Dosi G. A Baseline Model of Industry Evolution. IIASA Working Report IR-97-013, 1997.
21. Winter, S.G. Kaniovski Y. M., Dosi G. Modeling industrial dynamics with innovative Entrants. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 2000. V. 11. P. 255-293.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0954-349X(99)00010-7
22. Malerba F., Orseniga L. Schumpeterian Patternof Innovation. Cambridge Journal of Economic. 1995. V. 19, No 1. P. 47-65.
23. Breschi S., Malerba F., Orsenigo L. Technological Regimes and Schumpeterian Patterns of Innovation. The Economic Journal. 2000. V. 110, No 463. P. 388-410.
https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00530
24. Durlauf S.N. Neightborhood Feedback, Endogenous Stratification, and Income Inequality. in Barnett W., Gandolf G., Hillinger C., (eds). Dynamic Disequilibrium Modelling. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.
25. Weisbuch G., Kirman A.P., Herreiner D. Market Organisation. GREQAM. Marseille: Working Paper 96A20, 1996.
26. Orlean A. Bayesian Interactions and Collective Dynamics of Opinions: Herd Behavior and Mimetic Contagion. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 1995. V. 28. P. 257-274.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(95)00035-6
27. Schlag K.H. Why Imitate, and If So, How? A Bounded Rational Approach to Multi-Armed Bandits — University of Bonn: Discussion Paper, 1996. http://ideas.repec.org/p/bon/bonsfb/361.html
28. Weibull J. Evolutionary Game Theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995.
http://www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/b isdg08/pliki/Weibull1210101852581688583.pdf
29. Metcalfe J.S. The Diffusion of Innovation: An Interpretative Survey. in G. Dosi et al. (eds) Technical Change and Economic Theor. London: Pinter, 1988. P. 560-589.
30. Kwasnicki W., Kwasnicka H. Market, innovation, competition: an evolutionary model of industrial dynamics. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 1992. V. 19. P. 343-368.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(92)90042-A
31. Kwasnicki W. Knowledge, Innovation and Economy. An Evolutionary Exploration. Aldsershot: Edward Elgar, 1996.
32. Kwasnicki W. 1996b, Technological Development: An Evolutionary Model and Case Study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 1996. V. 52. P. 31-57.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(95)00272-3
33. Iwai K. Schumpeterian Dynamics. I: An Evolutionary Model of Innovation and Imitation. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 1984. V. 5. P. 159-190.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(84)90017-9
34. Iwai K. Schumpeterian Dynamics. II: Technological Progress, Firm Growth and Economic Selection. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 1984. V. 5. P. 321-351.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(84)90005-2
35. Henkin G.M., Polterovich V.M. 1991, Schumpeterian Dynamics as a Non-linear Wave Theory. Journal of Mathematical Economics. 1991. V. 20. P. 551-590.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(91)90026-P
36. Silverberg G. Embodied Technical Progress in a Dynamic Economic Model: the Self-Organization Paradigm. in Goodwin R., Krüger,M., Vercelli A., (eds) Nonlinear Models of Fluctuating Growth. 19: 192-208 Berlin-Heidelberg-New York: Springer Verlag, 1984. P. 192-208.
37. Silverberg G., Lehnert D. Growth Fluctuations in an Evolutionary Model of Creative Destruction. in Silverberg G., Soete, L., (eds). The Economics of Growth and Technical Change: Technologies, Nations, Agents. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1994.
38. Englmann F.C. Innovation, Diffusion, Employment and Wage Policy. Journal of Evolutionary Economics. 1992. V. 2. P. 179-193.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01202417
39. Englmann, F.C. A Schumpeterian Model of Endogenous Innovation and Growth. Journal of Evolutionary Economics. 1994. V. 4. P. 227-242.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01236370
40. Foster D., Young P. Stochastic Evolutionary Game Dynamics. Theoretical Population Biology. 1990. V. 38. P. 219-232.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-5809(90)90011-J
41. Young H.P. The Evolution of Conventions. Econometrica. 1993. V. 61, No 1. P. 57-85.
https://doi.org/10.2307/2951778
42. Young H.P. 1996, The Economics of Convention. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 1996. V. 10, No 2. P. 105-122.
https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.10.2.105
43. Kandori M., Mailath G.J., Rob R. Learning, Mutations, and Long Run Equilibrium in Games. Econometrica. 1993. V. 61, No 1. P. 29-56.
https://doi.org/10.2307/2951777
44. Percolation theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percolation_theory
45. Silverberg G., Verspagen B. Self-organization of R&D Search in Complex Technology Spaces (2005)
http://ideas.repec.-orp/dgr/umamer/2005015.html
46. Frenken K., Silverberg G., Valente M. A Percolation Model of the Product Lifecycle. Danish Research Unit for Industrial Dynamics. DRUID Working Paper No. 08-20 (2008). www.druid.dk
47. Hohnisch M., Pittnauer S., Stauffer D. A Percolation-Based Model Explaining Delayed Take-Off in New-Product Diffusion. Bonn Graduate School of Economics University of Bonn. Discussion Paper 9/2006 (April 2006). http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de/BGSE/bonn-econ-papers-1/archive/2006/bgse9_2...
48. Windrum P. Neo-Schumpeterian Simulation Models. Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT). Infonomics Research Memorandum series 2004-002. http://www.merit.unu.edu/publications/rmpdf/2004/rm2004-002.pdf
49. Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics. Horst Hanusch, Andreas Pyka (eds). Cheltenham, Camberley (UK), Northampton (MA, USA): Edward Elgar Publishing, 2007.
50. Malerba F., Nelson R., Orsenigo L., Winter S. HistoryFriendly Models: An Overview of the Case of the Computer Industry. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation. 2001. Vol. 4, No 3. http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/4/3/6.html
51. Andersen E.S., Valente M. Model Exploration and Extension in the Laboratory for Simulation Development. Chapter 1: Introduction to Artificial Evolutionary Processes. Danish Research Unit for Industrial Dynamics (DRUID) http://www.business.aau.dk/evolution/esapapers/esa02/andval1.pdf
52. Kozyk V.V., Sydorov Ju.I., Skvorcov I.B., Tarasovs'ka O.B. Zastosuvannja modeli Lotki—Vol'terra dlja opysu duopol'no-duopsonijevoi' konkurencii'. Aktual'ni problemy ekonomiky. 2010. no 2(104). S. 252-260 [in Ukrainian].
53. Simulation Modeling Services. Independent consultants serving manufacturing, healthcare, material handling, and service industries. http://www.simulation-modeling.com/
54. Simulation Modeling Services. http://simulationusa.com/index.html
55. Economic Systems Inc. http://www.econsys.com/manage_simulation.htm
56. Welcome to Information Research Corporation. http://www.ircwv.com/index.cfm?page=Simulation_Modeling
57. Saviotti P. P. Applied Evolutionary Economics: New Empirical Methods and Simulation Techniques. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003.
https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781952894
58. Malerba F., Orsenigo L. Towards a History Friendly Model of Innovation, Market Structure and Regulation in the Dynamics of the Pharmaceutical Industry: the Age of Random Screening. KITeS Working Papers 124, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jan 2001.
59. Bunn D., Oliveira F. S. Agent-Based Analysis of Technological Diversification and Specialisation in Electricity Markets. European Journal of Operations Research. 2007. V. 181, No 3. P. 1265-1278.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2005.11.056
60. Ponomarev A.E., Kjuntcel' S.V. Jevoljucionnyj podhod k modelirovaniju setevyh rynkov: primer rynka mobil'noj svjazi. http://vorona.hse.ru/sites/second_level/rf/UU2007NF/Busygin/… [in Russian].
61. Faber A., Valente M., Janssen P. Exploring Domestic Micro-cogeneration in the Netherlands: An Agent-based Demand Model for Technological Diffusion. Energy Policy. 2010. V. 38(6). P. 2763-2775.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.01.008
62. Fagiolo G., Valente M., Vriend N.J. Segregation in network. J. of Ecinomic Behavior & Organization. 2007. V. 64. P. 316-336.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2006.09.003
63. Malerba F., Nelson R., Orsenigo L., Winter S. Public policies and changing boundaries of firms in a «historyfriendly» model of the co-evolution of the computer and semiconductor industries. J. of Economic Behavior & Organization. 2008. V. 67(2). P. 355-380.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2006.10.010
64. Cassi L., Corrocher N., Malerba F., Vonortas N, 2008. Research Networks As Infrastructure For Knowledge Diffusion In European Regions. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor and Francis Journals. 2008. V. 17(7-8). P. 663-676.
65. Ciarli T., Lorentz A., Savona M., Valente M. The Effect of Consumption and Production Structure on Growth and Distribution. A Micro to Macro Model. Metroeconomica. 2010. V. 61, No 1. P. 180-218.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2009.04069.x
66. Robinsot S. http://www.amazon.co.uk/Simulation-Practice-Model-Developmentand-Use/dp/... — # Simulation: The Practice of Model Developmentand Use. UK, John Wiley & Sons, 2003.
67. Safarzyńska Karolina Ewa. Evolutionary Modelling of Transitions to Sustainable Development. Amsterdam: Vrije Universiteit, 2009.
http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/1871/15603/5/9032.pdf
68. Makarov V. O primenenii metoda jevoljucionnoj jekonomiki. Voprosy ekonomiki. 1997. no 3. S. 18-26.
http://www.auditorium.ru/books/596/makarov.pdf [in Russian].