Home /Archive /2020, Volume 16 /16(1) /Energy Strategy: Projections (Review)

Energy Strategy: Projections (Review)

TitleEnergy Strategy: Projections (Review)
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2020
AuthorsHeyets, VM, Kirilenko, OV, Basok, BI, Baseyev, Ye.T
Short TitleNauka innov.
DOI10.15407/scin16.01.003
Volume16
Issue1
SectionGeneral Problems of the Modern Research and Innovation Policy
Pagination3-15
LanguageUkrainian
Abstract
Introduction. At the present stage of the development of Ukraine, in the face of challenges and risks, it is extremely important to shape the national energy policy.
Problem Statement. The energy development strategy of Ukraine shall provide for the transition from the import of raw materials to the energy-efficient development of the fuel and energy complex using the results of fundamental and applied research in the field of natural and socio-economic sciences, the domestic innovative potential and R&D projects. 
Purpose. To overview the conceptual approaches related to forecasting (predicting, foresight) the life of society as a whole, and the development of power engineering, in particular.
Materials and Methods. A literary review of authoritative sources on methods for forecasting the development of power engineering, including that in Ukraine, has been presented.
Results. The research presents a retrospective look at the status of Ukraine’s power engineering until the 1990s and in the period of independence of the state. It was emphasized that the energy strategies of Ukraine as adopted in 1996, 2006, and in 2013 did not reach their purposes and indicators even in the medium-term prospects. In 2017, Ukraine adopted the fourth energy strategy, with the following main targets: safety, energy efficiency, and competitiveness. The last (fourth) energy strategy (ES-35) was developed in extreme conditions, under the influence of global changes in the world energy trends and numerous challenges for the domestic power engineering. Illustrative energy development schemes that characterize the complexity of energy forecasting and the need to take into account a number of key factors have been presented. The energy strategy of Ukraine and, in particular the ES-35, will depend on “the energy contours of the new world”, i.e. the energy trends and scenarios, as well as the global and local risks. The expected key parameters and indicators of the energy strategy may not coincide with the implemented values.
Conclusions. The energy strategy of Ukraine and, in particular, the ES-35, will depend on “the energy contours of the new world,” i.e. the energy trends and scenarios, as well as the global and local risks. The expected key parameters and indicators of the energy strategy may not coincide with the implemented values.
Keywordsenergy strategy, forecasting, fuel and energy complex, management and monitoring, roadmap, strategy implementation
References
1. Dombrovsky, O. (2017). The Ukrainian parliament has approved a complete package of European energy legislation within three years. Now we need quick implementation. TERMINAL, 4, December, 21–23 [in Ukrainian].
2. Kulyk, M. M., Horbulin, V. P., Kyrylenko, O. V. (2017). Conceptual approaches to the development of energy of Ukraine (analytical materials). Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 78 p. [in Ukrainian].
3. On the National Energy Program of Ukraine until 2010: Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, May 15, 1996. № 191/96-VR [in Ukrainian].
4. About the acceptance of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated March 15, 2006, № 145-r [in Ukrainian]. 
5. The renewed energy strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated 27.04.2013, №. 1070-r. "On Approval of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the Period until 2030" [in Ukrainian].
6. New Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2035: "Security, Energy Efficiency, Competitiveness" http://mpe.kmu.gov.ua/minugol/control/uk/doccatalog/list?currDir=50358 [in Ukrainian].
7. Oizerman, T. I. (2005). Is it possible to foresee a distant future, Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 75(8), 720–726 [in Russian].
8. Haiek, F. A. (1990). Road to slavery. Questions of philosophy, 1, 113–1519 [in Russian].
9. Prihozhyn, I. R. (1991). Philosophy of instability. Questions of philosophy, 6, 46–52 [in Russian].
10. Popper, K. (1992). The Poverty of Historicism (or Questions of Philosophy). Moscow: "Progress"  [in Russian].
11. Malinetskii, H. H. (2015). Technogenic resources in the context of the new industrialization of Russia. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 85(4), 344–350 [in Russian]. 
12. Kapitsa, P. L. (1974). Experiment Theory of Practice. Moscow: Science [in Russian].
13. Loktev, V. M. (2018). Knowledge is power? Visnyk of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 1, 75–85 [in Ukrainian].
14. Riabtsev, H. A. (2011). State policy on oil products market development in Ukraine: formation and implementation. Kyiv: NAPA [in Ukrainian].
15. Horelova, V. L. (1986). Basics prediction of systems. Moscow: High School [in Russian].
16. Makarov, A. A. (2010). Methods and results of forecasting the development of the energy of Russia. News of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Energy, 4, 26–40 [in Russian].
17. Filippov, S. P. (2010) Predicting Energy Consumption of a Complex of Adaptive Simulation Models. News of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Energy, 4, 41–45 [in Russian].
18. Fortov, V. Ye., Makarov, A. A. (2009). Directions of innovative development of the world energy industry and Russia. Successes of physical sciences, 179(12), 13–37 [in Russian].
19. Sukhodolia, A., Riabtsev, G. (2017). Energy manifesto, TERMINAL, 2(848), 3–8 [in Russian].
20. Potashnik, S. I. (2017). From strategy to working papers and real deadlines. TERMINAL, 2(848), 31–32 [in Russian].
21. Rukomeda, R. (2017). Energy contours of the new world. TERMINAL, 2(848), 39–42 [in Russian].
22. Buslavets, O. (2017). High-quality road maps require high-quality tools. TERMINAL, 2(848), 22–26 [in Ukrainian].
23. Oharenko, Yu., Aliieva, O. (Eds.) (2017). The transition of Ukraine to renewable energy till 2050. Кyiv: ART BOOK [in Ukrainian].
24. Apolonskii, O. Yu., Orlov, Yu. N. (2010). Comparative analysis of long-term forecasts of energy development. Part II. Preprint of the IPM named after M. V. Keldysh, №58, 26 p. [in Russian] http://library.keldysh.ru/preprint.asp?=2010-58 (Last accessed 01.09.2019).
25. Klimenko, V. V. (2014). Experience of genetic projections of world energy: can we foresee the distant future? Reports of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 458(4), 415–418 [in Russian].
26. Palahin, O. V. (2018). Speech. Visnyk of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 4, 37–39 [in Ukrainian].
27. Saukh, S. Ye. (2018). Problems of mathematical modelling of competitive equilibrium in the electricity market. Visnyk of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 4, 53–67 [in Ukrainian].
https://doi.org/10.15407/visn2018.04.053
28. NTTS “PSIKHEYA”. (2017). Psychea Expertus: razglyadet’ detali, TERMINAL, 2(848), 35–36 [in Russian].
29. Heiets, V. M. (2016). Development and interaction of economic and energy policy in Ukraine, Visnyk of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 2, 46–53 [in Ukrainian]. 
30. Dolinsky, A. A., Basok, B. I., Baseev, Y. T. (2015). Strategy of heat supply of settlements of Ukraine. To discuss the projects of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the period until 2020, 2030 and 2035. Visnyk of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 4, 98–105 [in Ukrainian]